Just 1 Bet

Still quiet on the blogging front and I will not be getting too involved this weekend as we need time for the leagues to settle down.

I have had an interest in the Total Goals Index with sporting as they have a spread of 26-27, I have gone through the games (10 of them) and cannot find more than 23 goals so I have Sold @ 26.... bring on the bore draws I say

Some Ante Post Spread Bets

I always like to have a few ante post spread bets in place for the start of the football season and I think I have found a few that will keep me interested for the majority of the season.

I don't look below the Championship as I find League 1 and 2 very tough to call as I know very little about most of the teams.

So we have:

Premiership Relegation Index - Buy Wigan @ 17
Last = 60pts, Second Bottom = 40pts, Third Bottom = 30pts, Fourth Bottom = 20pts, Fifth Bottom = 10pts, Sixth Bottom = 5pts. All others = 0.

I think Wigan may find it a tough old season this time round as they struggled last season and have with a leaky defence and lack of any real quality going forward a relegation battle is the best they can look forward to.

Championship Points Index - Buy Bristol City @ 70
They have Steve Coppell on board and I am sure that he would not have gone there if he didn't mean business, the signing of David James was a very positive move.
They managed 63 points last season and should do much better this time round.

Championship Outright Index - Buy Derby @ 4
Winner = 60pts, Second = 40pts, Third = 30pts, Fourth = 20pts, Fifth = 10pts, Sixth = 5pts. All others = 0.
A bit of a low risk punt this one, they didn't really fire on all 4 cylinders last season under Clough junior finishing 14th and I am sure he will be looking for a much better campaign this season 6th place or better will see us in the dosh.

Championship Outright Index - Buy Sheffield Utd @ 9
They managed to finish 8th last season on 65 points I rate Kevin Blackwell as a decent manager and they look to have enough going for them to have a decent campaign, 5th place or higher will see us in the money.

The benefit of taking these as spread bets is that I will be able to trade them as the season progresses.

Stoke on The Up

Just looking at the top 10 finish market for the Premiership and have had a bit of interest in Stoke @ 4.23

Assuming that the top 8 will be something like (in no particular order):

Man Utd
Chelsea
Man city
Liverpool
Everton
Villa
Arsenal
Tottenham

This leaves a couple of spaces to fill the top 10

Birmingham and Blackburn took these 2 spots last season with Stoke 3 points off the pace.

I think Birmingham may find it a tougher season this time round and they could make way for Stoke who under Tony Pulis have established themselves as a steady tough to beat Premiership side.

The only other side that may IMHO threaten for the top 10 is Fulham now that they have got Mark Hughes at the helm.

Hungary

F1 Grand Prix action from Hungary today and I have already committed some of my hard earned to the following bets (all taken pre qualifying):

Winner - Mark Webber @ 4
Podium finish - Lewis Hamilton @ 3.2

Points Finish - A Sutil @ 2.28

The race looks all about a Red Bull 1-2 and the reason that I have taken Webber is that I think he is a better overall driver than his German team mate Vettel.
Vettel is a great driver and will be a Champion 1 day but he has a long way to go.
Fantastic at qualifying and putting in the "Ace Lap" when he needs it but you have to say he is pretty crap at racing.
6 pole positions and only 1 win to show for it, this is very poor going and I think Webber will get at him again today by the 1st corner and go onto win.

Hamilton is 5th on the grid and could well make the podium from there especially if the rain that is forecast ed arrives, we could see an interesting scrap between the also rans behind the Red Bulls.

A Sutil is 13th on the grid and I am hoping he can make his way up the order and hit the points.

I did have a bet on Webber to be qualifying winner which went down the pan by nearly half a second and this was also in a double of him winning the race so a double hit from the Aussie boy but I expect him to pay me back today with interest.

Have a great Sunday all and enjoy the race if you are watching.

No Happy Days For The Seasiders

I have taken a strong opinion that Blackpool look to be on a hiding to nothing coming into their 1st season in the Premiership, they can be backed @ 2.00 to finis bottom but I rather like the look of them to be bottom at Xmas which is available at 2.10 and wouldn't tie your dosh up for too long.
They have to face trips to Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea as well as taking on Man Utd at home all before Santa arrives and have only 7 home games out of the 17 to be played, this looks a good bet to me.

Ferrari F1 Farce!

To say that I am annoyed about the outcome of yesterdays race in Hockenheim would be a huge understatement.

All of my bets went belly up which of course hurt, but the blatant cheating by Ferrari and the subsequent pathetic $100,000 fine imposed by the FIA is what really got me worked up.

It has to be one of the most blatant cases of cheating seen in recent years, witnessed by millions of people.

The post race attempt at a cover up by Ferrari were laughable and in my opinion were an insults to people's intelligence.

If this had been McLaren you can be sure that the outcome woul dhave been completely different, it appears that Ferrari have a completely different set of rules than any of th eother teams.

I could go on and on but will call it quits for now.

I will sign off for today with what Rob Smedley should have said to Felipe Massa:

" Fernando is a spoilt miserable Spanish git and has thrown his toys out of the pram, can you please let him past other wise he won't play with us again"

Rant over

German Grand Prix Final Bets

Well he royally messed it up 2 weeks ago at Silverstone but I am not expecting a repeat performance here and I think he will win in front of his home crowd.

He put in an Ace lap in qualifying to out gun the miserable Spaniard in the Ferrari (happy days) and now sits on Pole.

His team mate Mark Webber is back in 4th just behind the other Ferrari of Felipe Massa, had Webber been behind him in 2nd place I would be taking Vettel on but I think he will be too quick away from the Ferraris and will lead from lights out to chequered flag

I have taken him at 2.04 on Betfair which is in my opinion about the right price, I wouldn’t want to b backing him at odds on as he has proven to be less than reliable at holding onto leads.

Button has out qualified his team mate Hamilton and that should make for an interesting race for the 2 McLarens sitting 5 and 6 on the grid, my Button to podium bet is still alive but my Sutil points finish bet is looking a bit shaky as he has taken a 5 place grid drop for a gear box change, he will need to drive out of his skin to hit the points from 19th on the grid.

The other good bit of news is that Michael Schumacher is only 11th on the grid so hopefully he won’t be in the points.

The other bet that I have taken is Massa to post the fastest lap @ 20

All in all it should be a good race with Vettel bringing home the bacon and Button on the podium.